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EU Referendum: Our experts give their opinions on what's best for Britain

The country will go to the polls on Thursday to make a choice that will affect generations.

On June 23 the EU Referendum will decide whether Britain Remains within the European Union or opts for Brexit.

The debate has been heated on both sides, with arguments about the economy and immigration dominating the dialogue.

If you’re still struggling to decide, so here is what our experts think is best for Britain.

Tricia Phillips, personal finance editor

MARTIN SPAVEN Ruki Sayid and Tricia Phillips

Ruki Sayid and Tricia Phillips

Nobody knows 100% what a Brexit will mean for our finances but there are major concerns the stock market will hit rocky times and which will mean a dip in the value of pension funds.

That could leave older workers vulnerable, without enough time to make up these losses before they retire.

Read more: Answer to legitimate concerns about immigration can be found but not by leaving EU

Expats in EU countries risk losing tens of thousands of pounds off their State Pension if they lose the triple lock guarantee that increases pensions by at least 2.5% every year.

I think pensioners, and those approaching retirement, have been hit hard already with low returns on pension savings and pathetic interest on bank savings.

Many are already struggling to make ends meet and I don’t want to see them any worse off. That’s why I’m voting to remain.

Ruki Sayid, consumer editor

MARTIN SPAVEN Ruki Sayid and Tricia Phillips

Ruki Sayid and Tricia Phillips

From shopping online to taking our smart phones abroad, we give little thought to how we are protected from rip-offs.

Just a decade ago we were being stung by sky high mobile phone roaming charges.

But since 2007 the EU has capped them and from next year they will be axed as holidaymakers only pay what their UK contract states.

Read more: Would Brexit make supermarkets cheaper? We take a look

Some argue we will not be stripped of this benefit if Britain leaves but operators would be free to charge what they wanted.

Likewise our consumer rights are covered by European law that ensures online shoppers within the EU pay the same prices for products and have the right to have faulty items repaired or replaced.

And when it comes to food prices the World Trade Organisation has voiced concerns that grocery bills will soar by 8% putting pressure on household budgets.

For these reasons, I’m voting to stay in the EU.

Nigel Thompson, travel editor

MEN Easy Jet Plane

Will holidays be more expensive if we leave

The question being asked is a simple one – will our holidays be more expensive if we leave?

A simple answer – nobody really knows. Dire predictions say sterling will slide in the short term, affecting your costs on the Costas. Or maybe it’ll hold up.

You should of course never travel without insurance, but the back-up of free ​medical cover via the European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) may go.

Read more: Would Brexit invalidate my EHIC card? What happens if you’re travelling to Europe after June 23

As a Brexit bonus we may see the return of ​good old ​duty free. But duty limits would end the booze cruise with a car boot full of bargain wine and beer from across the Channel.

My opinion? Travel brings Europe and the world closer together. Why cut yourself off?

Graham Hiscott, business editor

Getty The financial district Canary Wharf in London

The financial district Canary Wharf in London

Big business is banging the drum to Remain.

Staying gives us tariff-free access to 500 million consumers, helps us shape the rules, brings certainty.

Leaving mean striking new trade deals and risks uncertainty.

But the UK, the world’s fifth biggest economy, still wields huge clout, its rules are already harmonised with the EU, and we’ll have two years to transition. And small firms- 60% of all private sector employers – are far more split.

George Osborne claims leaving will trigger an 18% drop in house prices. True?

Read more: George Osborne to deliver brutal Brexit budget of NHS cuts and tax hikes if Britain leaves Europe

He has no idea. Bad? Not if you can’t afford to get on the propertyladder.

I’m a reluctant Remainer: better off trying to fix the broken EU from the inside, I only hope.

Andrew Penman, investigations columnist

Getty Tony Benn

Tony Benn wasn’t a fan of the EU

The EU is riddled with corruption, losing £670 million to fraud last year. Angry?

The European Commission doesn’t care because you cannot vote it out of office. You can love democracy, or the EU, but you can’t love both.

As Tony Benn said: “I can think of no body of men outside the Kremlin who have so much power without a shred of accountability for what they do.”

It is the poor of Europe who suffer as the dictatorial Commission forces austerity on countries while persisting in failed economic policies, putting the wishes of bankers before the needs of workers.

The title of the new book by economics journalist Larry Elliott says it all: Europe Isn’t Working.

Chris Hughes, defence and security editor

Getty Militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant pose with the trademark Jihadists flag

Cooperation is key to defeating ISIS

Many military experts feel staying in Europe offers Britain greater security in numbers against a perceived threat from hostile states like Russia and the threat of Islamist terror.

Co-operation between European intelligence agencies and military is crucial in tackling the fast-moving danger presented by groups like Islamic State.

Given the defence cuts this government has imposed we need the help of European partners with air-defence and early warning systems.

And that co-operation is maximised and uncompromised by remaining in the Union.

Read more: ISIS backs Brexit, David Cameron claims

Inevitably, the ‘out’ camp believe this co-operation will be unaffected if we leave and the risk posed by Islamic migrants from war-stricken Asian and African countries poses a greater risk.

But I believe Britain is safer by remaining – whilst strengthening border controls.

Mark Ellis, industrial correspondent

Getty Workers in call centre office

The EU protects workers’ rights

When the leaders of Britain’s biggest unions representing some six million workers and bosses of our largest firms and exporters speak with one voice, it is time for the nation to listen.

They have stated in no uncertain terms that Remain is the only vote to safeguard jobs, hard-won employment rights and trade deals on which this country thrives, from exporting millions of cars to specialist skills we sell aboard so well.

Read more: Leaving EU would lead to mass job losses and erosion of hard-won rights, warns trade union

A touch of the Tory legislation wand could see the end of redundancy rights, paid holidays, maternity and paternity leave and so many other parts of our working lives we take for granted.

Self-employed workers have the right to work in any EU member state and more than half of the 4.6m of them want to stay in.

No one I know says the EU is without it faults, but we can only reform it from within.

Brexit is a dangerous leap too far for our futures and those of the generations ahead.

Alison Phillips, columnist

Getty Pregnant Woman

Women just want fairness for families

Most of the women I know want nothing more – yet nothing less – than a bit of fairness for their families.

Fairness in the now. And fairness for the future.

And and as far as women are concerned, much of the fairness – equality if you prefer that word – has been imposed in recent years on Britain through European regulations.

Of course for a lot of folk that statement in itself is a slam dunk vote for Out.

Read more: Brexit would leave families £4,300 a YEAR worse off claims study by George Osborne

But they should ask themselves how they’d feel if it was their daughter or wife who was deprived maternity leave, or equal pay for doing the same job as a man, or paternity leave for her partner in the first few weeks after a new baby turns up.

I’m not imagining that if we wake up out of Europe on Friday morning that Britain will instantly overturn such rulings.

But the fight for fairness – or equality – is by no means over.

It is a fragile thing – and one just not worth taking risks with.

Jason Beattie, political editor

Getty The Palace of Westminster

Jason is yet to make up his mind

There is no doubt many Mirror readers will have felt the adverse impact of immigration.

Some will have seen their wages undercut, others pushed down the queue for housing.

But these are as much the fault of a Tory government as the rules of Brussels.

Part of our deal with being a member of the EU is accepting free movement – that any EU citizen can live and work in another country.

Read more: Brexit vote could mean 2 MILLION Brits become illegal immigrants

This has allowed 1.2m Brits to enjoy a life elsewhere.

But it has also meant 2million people from EU have come to work here. Brexit means we could put a cap on that.

But here’s the catch. Any post-Brexit trade deal we strike with the EU will have to include free movement.

On Thursday I’ll cast my vote but at the moment I’m sitting on the fence.

Andrew Gregory, health editor

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Boris Johnson has said up to £350million a week that currently gets sent to Brussels could be spent on the NHS.

But UK statistics chief Sir Andrew Dilnot slammed the claim as “potentially misleading”.

A survey of NHS hospital bosses found 75% say Brexit would have a negative impact on the NHS.

Most cited the potential impact on staffing as their biggest concern.

Read more: Government blasts Boris Johnson’s Brexit campaign for ‘exploiting’ beloved NHS logo

It also tells you something when the British Medical Association and Jeremy Hunt – who have fought each other mercilessly over the junior doctors strike during the last year – actually agree on something. Both say Brexit would be bad for the NHS.

As one senior manager at a busy NHS hospital said to me recently: “The NHS is already facing a crisis.

If we leave, we could end up with a bigger crisis, with fewer nurses, fewer doctors, and longer waiting times for treatment. Do we really want to take that risk?”

Probably not. The NHS plays a vital role in keeping millions of us alive and well every day. It’s difficult not to conclude that voting Remain is best for the NHS.

Laura Connor, feature writer

Getty European Union and the Union flag sit on top of a sand castle

Borders only create fractures

I don’t believe strongly in the sovereignty of Britain and dislike the idea of nationalism.

I feel European, not British. Borders only create fractures and I want to live in an inclusive and multi-cultural Britain.

As a 26 year old, I want to be able to travel, work and live all over Europe without complicated visas and extra charges. I also want any children I may have to feel these benefits too.

Read more: Gordon Brown says EU will create jobs for our children so we must vote IN

People like me and younger will be around for decades to come, feeling the real effects of a Brexit.

Three million UK jobs are linked with our EU trade deals and a lot of firms also invest in the UK because of our links to the EU.

Yes, Brexit campaigners say new trade deals could be negotiated – but there is no guarantee.

But most of all the Brexit campaign has totally alienated people like me with its poisonous scaremongering and jingoism. That’s not the Britain I want to live in.

Siobhan McNally, columnist

Tony Benn would have been pro-Brexit

Fear of being lumped in with rabid Ukippers and other anti-immigration loonies was keeping me in the Remain camp, despite my Leave sympathies.

Then recently I listened to an old speech on the radio by the late great Old Labour politician Tony Benn explaining why he believed that Britain should not be in the EU, and I was swayed by his simple argument that self-determination is a socialist principle.

Read more: Hilary Benn invokes memory of late father Tony as he urges Labour voters to back Remain at EU referendum

And so in the end, I have decided that if we value our democracy in this country, then we should not hand it over on a plate to the undemocratic EU gravy train, and I will be voting for Brexit.

Tom Pettifor, chief crime correspondent

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The terror attacks in Paris and Brussels resulted in a huge amount of co-operation between Scotland Yard and their European counterparts.

Some Met detectives who spent months in France and Belgium in the wake of the atrocities are believed to be concerned about what Brexit might mean for these working relationships.

Read more: EU Referendum: What happens after we vote and the final verdict is in

But another officer I spoke to recently said leaving the EU will have little effect on joint investigations, while our closest security connections remain with the US.

I will be voting out on Thursday because I believe Brexit will give a much needed boost to our democracy and help to re-engage voters with politics.

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EU referendum: The experts

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Nation-Now 'Brexit' risks economic instability, head of biz group says

EDINBURGH, Scotland — The Scottish economy, already reeling from the effects of cheap oil and gas on North Sea drilling, will face challenges on multiple fronts if the United Kingdom votes to leave the European Union, according to the head of a British group that represents almost 200,000 companies and trade associations.

Last week the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow indicated that Scotland was lagging the four countries of the United Kingdom economically and is at risk of entering a recession.

“Why would we (while) at our most vulnerable take a risk that could present us with all sorts of challenges and a prolonged period of uncertainty?” said Paul Drechsler, president of the London-based Confederation of British Industry. “All the things I look at say exit would take us somewhere that would be less attractive, more unknown and very risky.”

Drechsler was in Scotland’s capital to speak to the organization’s members here and said before the meeting that a vote for “Brexit,” British exit from the European Union, could cast doubt on a range of things businesses rely on, including access to key export markets on the European continent and a pool of skilled labor.

“If you look at what would happen in terms of taxation if we were out of the EU, there’d be plenty to worry about,” Drechsler said.

He noted that Scotland benefits from foreign investment that membership in the European Union helps to attract. And if a “leave” vote were to trigger another referendum for Scottish independence from the United Kingdom, his outlook was more grim.

“Uncertainty is bad for business, and therefore, I think the Scottish people have to decide what their priorities are,” said Drechsler, who was born in Dublin.

Although 5 in 6 residents of the United Kingdom live in England — Scotland has about 8% of the UK population — Scotland’s more than 4 million voters potentially can play a decisive role in Thursday’s vote.

“My assessment is the odds are 50-50,” Drechsler said. “50-50 means Scotland will play a vital role in the outcome, so its vote really counts.”

Drechsler is a former chief executive of the Wates Group in Leatherhead, Surrey, one of the largest construction companies in the UK, and is present chairman of Liverpool-based Bibby Line Group, which has shipping and financial services interests, in addition to his confederation duties. He said the European Union is not perfect, but he believes that the answer to the EU’s problems is reform from within. 

He asked employers to encourage their employees to vote.

“This is the most important decision for a generation, and it is the most important decision for the next generation,” he said. “Most of the people I see arguing about this on the TV are not the next generation.”

Follow Mark Williamson on Twitter: @MarkWHerald

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Brexit-News-Blog: “Kein Grund zu fürchten, dass Türken in die EU strömen”

London – Kurz vor dem EU-Referendum führen die Brexit-Gegner um Premier David Cameron in den Umfragen. Wirtschaftsverbände entwerfen Horror-Szenarien – und selbst türkische Diplomaten versuchen via Twitter, britische Ängste zu zerstreuen.  

  • Am kommenden Donnerstag, 23. Juni 2016, stimmen die Briten über den Brexit ab.
  • Nachdem die Umfragen in den vergangenen Monaten eher auf einen EU-Ausstieg hingedeutet hatten, machen neuere Studien dem Lager von Premierminister David Cameron wieder Hoffnung.
  • Die Gründe für den vermeintlichen Stimmungsumschwung im Vereinigten Königreich könnten mit dem Mord an der Labour-Abgeordneten Jo Cox zusammenhängen. Ein Mann mit möglicherweise nationalistischer Gesinnung hatte sie am vergangenen Donnerstag umgebracht. 
  • Die Folgen eines Brexit’s sind nach wie vor nicht vorhersehbar. Hier gibt es die Top-News dazu.
  • >>>Aktualisieren<<<

    +++ Die Stimmung an der Wall Street hat sich am Montag angesichts verbesserter Chancen auf einen Verbleib Großbritanniens in der Europäischen Union (EU) wieder aufgehellt. Allerdings konnte der Dow Jones Industrial seine frühen Gewinne von rund eineinhalb Prozent nicht ganz verteidigen. Zum Handelsschluss notierte der US-Leitindex noch 0,73 Prozent im Plus bei 17 804,87 Punkten.

    In der vergangenen Woche hatte auch die Wall Street unter der Furcht der Investoren vor den möglichen Brexit-Folgen gelitten. Jüngste Umfragen deuteten nun aber auf Zugewinne des Pro-EU-Lagers hin, wenngleich es bei dem Referendum in Großbritannien an diesem Donnerstag nach wie vor nach einem Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen aussieht.

    Die Sorgen der Investoren hätten in der vergangenen Woche einen Höhepunkt erreicht, sagte Marktexperte Daniel Saurenz von Feingold Research. Wer aus dem Markt raus wollte, sei raus gewesen. Entsprechend sei zum Wochenauftakt verstärkter Kaufdruck aufgekommen.

    Große Live-Debatte am Dienstag

    +++ Der mutmaßliche Mörder der Abgeordneten,Thomas M., wurde über eine Videoschalte vor dem zentralen Strafgericht Old Bailey in London befragt. Diesmal nannte er den Richtern seinen wirklichen Namen, wie der britische Sender BBC berichtete. Noch am Samstag hatte er vor einem niederen Gericht auf die Frage nach seinem Namen gesagt: „Tod den Verrätern. Freiheit für Großbritannien.“

    Der 52-jährige soll nach Medienberichten Kontakte zu einer Nazigruppe in den USA und zu einer südafrikanischen Rassistenorganisation gehabt haben.

    +++ Im Londoner Wembley-Stadion findet am Dienstag eine große Live-Debatte über die anstehende Brexit-Abstimmung statt (ab 21.00 Uhr MESZ). Bei der von der BBC übertragenen Diskussionsrunde treffen unter anderem der Londoner Bürgermeister und EU-Befürworter Sadiq Khan und sein Vorgänger Boris Johnson aufeinander. Johnson ist erklärter Gegner der britischen EU-Mitgliedschaft.

    Zu Gast sind in dem Stadion rund 6000 Zuschauer. Die Diskussionsrunde ist paritätisch nach Brexit-Gegnern und Befürwortern besetzt. Zuletzt lagen beide Lager in Umfragen wieder gleichauf. Die Brexit-Debatte steht auch im Zeichen des Mordes an der Labour-Politikerin Jo Cox. Die EU-Verfechterin war am Donnerstag auf offener Straße getötet worden. In der Folge stand das politische Leben einige Tage lang still.

    Brexit-Abstimmung: Türkische Diplomaten schalten sich ein

    +++ Brexit-News: Kurz vor dem EU-Referendum versuchen türkische Diplomaten, britische Ängste zu zerstreuen. Die türkische EU-Vertretung in Brüssel erinnerte am Montagabend über den Kurznachrichtendienst Twitter daran, dass die von Ankara angestrebte Visumfreiheit für türkische Bürger nur für den Schengen-Raum gelten würde – dem Großbritannien gar nicht angehört. „Kein Grund zu fürchten, dass Türken in die EU strömen“, schrieb die Vertretung. 

    (3/5) A reminder: #VisaLiberalization for #Turkey is only for #Schengen countries, in which the #UK does not belong.

    — Turkish Deleg. to EU (@AvbirDT) 20. Juni 2016

    Und die türkischen Diplomaten führten auch noch einen Grund ins Feld, warum die eigenen Bürger es letztlich ohnehin vorziehen könnten, in der Türkei zu bleiben: „Wir haben besseres Wetter!“

    (4/5) Nevertheless, no need to fear #Turks streaming into the #EU. We only want it for practical reasons. We have better weather!

    — Turkish Deleg. to EU (@AvbirDT) 20. Juni 2016

    Brexit-Befürworter hatten vor dem britischen Referendum Ängste vor der Einreise von Türken nach Großbritannien und einem EU-Beitritt des Landes geschürt. „Schockiert“ sei man über einige der „Lügen“ über das eigene Land, twitterten die Diplomaten. Die Türkei wolle der EU zwar weiterhin beitreten. Doch dazu müsse das Land erst die Standards der EU-Staaten erreichen, dem müssten alle zustimmen – und die Türkei müsse am Ende tatsächlich noch beitreten wollen.

    „Wir hätten nie gedacht, dass die Briten Angst vor irgendetwas haben“, schrieb die türkische Vertretung. „Außerdem ist es völliger Unsinn, die Bürger eines Verbündeten zu fürchten.“

    (5/5) Finally, we never thought #Brits to be afraid of anything. Moreover, fearing citizens of an ally is totally nonsense.

    — Turkish Deleg. to EU (@AvbirDT) 20. Juni 2016

    Tusk spricht von “Warnsignal” für EU

    +++ Auch EU-Ratspräsident Donald Tusk meldet sich zu Wort. Unabhängig vom Ausgang sei die Brexit-Abstimmung ein “Warnsignal” für die gesamte EU. Es wäre “verrückt”, ein solches Warnsignal nicht wahrzunehmen, erklärte Tusk am Montag während eines Besuchs in Lissabon via Twitter.

    “Meine größte Befürchtung ist es, dass ein negativer Ausgang andere EU-Skeptiker ermuntern könnte”, sagte Tusk, der sich zu einem Gespräch mit dem portugiesischen Regierungschef Antonio Costa in Lissabon aufhielt. An die britischen Bürger appellierte der EU-Ratsvorsitzende: “Bleiben Sie bei uns! Wir brauchen Sie! Zusammen werden wir mit künftigen Herausforderungen fertig, getrennt wird es schwieriger.”

    I appeal to the British citizens: Stay with us. We need you. Together we will cope with future challenges. Apart it will be more difficult.

    — Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) 20. Juni 2016

    +++ Vier Tage nach dem Mord an der Labour-Abgeordneten Jo Cox ist das britische Unterhaus am Montag zu einer außerordentlichen Sitzung im Gedenken an die 41-Jährige zusammengekommen. In einer Rede rief Labour-Chef Jeremy Corbyn zu einer höflicheren und behutsameren Politik auf. Das Land sei sich einig, „den Hass zu bekämpfen, der sie getötet hat“. Die Tat erscheine immer mehr als ein „Akt extremer politischer Gewalt“ und sei ein „Angriff auf die gesamte Gesellschaft“, sagte Corbyn.

    Premierminister David Cameron würdigte Cox als „Stimme für die Menschlichkeit“. Zum Zeichen der Trauer hatten sich die Parlamentarier weiße Rosen angesteckt, auch auf dem leer gebliebenen Platz der getöteten Abgeordneten lag eine Rose.

    EU-Bürger mehrheitlich gegen Brexit

    +++ Die EU-Bürger außerhalb Großbritanniens sind einer Umfrage zufolge mehrheitlich gegen einen Austritt des Landes aus der Europäischen Union. In einer am Montag veröffentlichten EU-weiten repräsentativen Erhebung im Auftrag der Bertelsmann-Stiftung sprachen sich 54 Prozent der EU-Bürger außerhalb des Königreichs gegen einen sogenannten Brexit aus. Für einen Austritt waren nur 21 Prozent der Befragten.

    Während die Spanier (64 Prozent) und Polen (61 Prozent) sich laut Umfrage am klarsten für einen Verbleib der Briten stark machen, ist der Anteil der “Brexit”-Gegner in Italien (55 Prozent) und Deutschland (54 Prozent) insgesamt kleiner, stellt aber ebenfalls die Mehrheit. In Frankreich ist das anders. Dort sind nur 41 Prozent gegen einen britischen Austritt. Schwerwiegende Folgen befürchten nicht viele.

    +++Die Wettbörse Betfair schätzt die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines EU-Verbleibs der Briten mittlerweile auf 74,6 Prozent. Noch am Freitag waren es zwischen 60 und 67 Prozent. Auch hier deutet damit alles auf eine Pro-EU-Abstimmung hin.

    Brexit: Premier League befürchtet mögliche Folgen

    +++ Die Topklubs der englischen und walisischen Liga sprechen sich für einen Verbleib Großbritanniens in der EU aus. Richard Scudamore, einer der mächtigsten Männer im britischen Fußball und Chairman der Premier League, sagte der BBC, dass ein Brexit den globalen Zielen des Verbandes nicht entgegenkäme. Im Gegenteil. Die Abstimmung wird es in wenigen Tagen zeigen.

    All 20 @premierleague clubs agree: a Remain vote this Thursday is best for football – and best for Britain: https://t.co/pY8fqCZit3

    — David Cameron (@David_Cameron) 20. Juni 2016

    +++ Ein Abschied der Briten aus der EU würde dem Bundesverband Großhandel, Außenhandel, Dienstleistungen (BGA) zufolge die Wirtschaft Großbritanniens und der ganzen EU hart treffen. „Ein Brexit führt zu Unsicherheit und Vertrauensverlust über Jahre“, sagte Verbandspräsident Anton Börner am Montag in Berlin. Ein Brexit hätte erhebliche Folgen auf die Euroschuldenkrise, die Arbeitslosigkeit und die wirtschaftlichen Aussichten insgesamt.

    +++ Dank steigender Umfragewerte lassen die Brexit-Sorgen ein wenig nach. Das macht sich auch an der Börse bemerkbar. So ist der Dax am Montag mit einem satten Kurssprung in den Handel gestartet und nähert sich bereits wieder der Marke von 10 000 Punkten. Bis zur Mittagszeit gewann das deutsche Börsenbarometer 3,11 Prozent oder knapp 300 Punkte auf 9930,78 Zähler, nachdem es seit Anfang Juni fast durchweg bergab gegangen war.

    Brexit: Steinmeier hofft bei Abstimmung auf Cameron-Lager

    +++ Bundesaußenminister Frank-Walter Steinmeier wünscht sich beim Brexit-Referendum einen erfolgreichen Wahlkampfendspurt der EU-Befürworter. „Wir hoffen sehr, dass die letzten Tage der innenpolitischen Auseinandersetzungen dazu führen, dass das Remain-Lager an Unterstützung gewinnt“, sagte der SPD-Politiker am Montag am Rande eines EU-Ministertreffens in Luxemburg.

    +++ Nicht nur in den Umfragen zeichnet sich ein Stimmungswechsel ab. Auch Personell tut sich kurz vor dem Abstimmungs-Termin am 23. Juni 2016 etwas: Sayeeda Warsi, einst eines der Gesichter der Brexit-Befürworter, wechselt die Seite ins Cameron-Lager. Der Grund: Wegen der oft fremdenfeindlichen Rhetorik der Brexit-Kampagne seien für sie die Grenzen des Anstands überschritten worden.

    +++ Die Brexit-News: Premierminister David Cameron stellte sich am Sonntagabend im Sender BBC den Fragen des Studiopublikums und des Moderators David Dimbleby. Der Kopf der Brexit-Gegner sprach natürlich über die voraussichtlichen Nachteile eines Ausstiegs. Sein Hauptargument: Großbritannien würde an Wirtschaftskraft verlieren. Er wirft er den Brexit-Befürwortern vor, mit falschen Behauptungen zu arbeiten: „Die Leute bekommen Flyer der Leave-Kampagne auf denen steht, die Türkei würde der EU beitreten – falsch, die EU würde eine Armee gründen mit Großbritannien – falsch, und dass wir jede Woche 350 Millionen Pfund nach Brüssel überweisen – falsch.”

    Brexit: Umfragewandel pro Cameron in Großbritannien

    +++ Offenbar machen die Brexit-Gegner Boden gut. Laut einer Umfrage am Freitag und Samstag im Auftrag der “Mail on Sunday” stimmten 45 Prozent gegen einen Brexit, 42 Prozent dafür. Noch am Donnerstag war die Umfrage genau gegenteilig ausgegangen. Auch eine Umfrage des Instituts YouGov zeigte bereits Mitte der vergangenen Woche einen Umschwung. Das Pro-Europa-Lager verkürzte demnach den Abstand von vier auf zwei Prozentpunkte. Am Donnerstag und Freitag lagen die Brexit-Gegner schließlich schon mit einem Prozentpunkt in Front (44:43).

    +++ Nach dem Mord an der Abgeordneten und Brexit-Gegnerin Jo Cox setzten die beiden Parteien den Wahlkampf drei Tage aus. Nun tobt der Kampf um die Brexit-Abstimmung wieder. Der mutmaßliche Attentäter Thomas M. verweigerte vor Gericht die Aussage seines richtigen Namens, seiner Adresse und seines Geburtsdatums. Stattdessen antwortete er mit den Worten: “Tod den Verrätern, Freiheit für Großbritannien.”

    Brexit: Gründe und Folgen eines EU-Austritts Großbritanniens

    Die Folgen eines EU-Austritts Großbritanniens sind nicht abschätzbar – für das Land selbst, für die EU, aber auch für Deutschland. Vor allem aus wirtschaftlicher Sicht könnte es aber für das Vereinigte Königreich enorme Folgen haben. Der freie Zugang zum EU-Binnenmarkt würde wegfallen. Die Briten müssten neue Freihandelsabkommen mit den dann 27 EU-Staaten verhandeln und darüber hinaus mit allen weiteren Freihandelszonen und Ländern der Welt. Experten sind sicher: Das würde Jahre in Anspruch nehmen. Für diesen Fall fürchtet Premierminister Cameron ausbleibende Investitionen und dadurch einen “Schwebezustand” der Wirtschaft. Wir haben die  Gründe, Folgen und den Stand der Umfragen zusammengefasst.

    Der Brexit wäre auch für die Wirtschaft hierzulande gefährlich. Die Gründe: Über 2500 deutsche Unternehmen haben eine Niederlassung im Vereinigten Königreich, was einem Kapitalstock von etwa 130 Milliarden Euro und rund 400.000 Mitarbeitern entspricht.

    Neben den wirtschaftlichen Folgen aber würde ein Brexit weitaus mehr bedeuten: Europa würde mit Großbritannien das Land mit der drittgrößten Bevölkerung der EU verlieren, außerdem die zweitgrößte Volkswirtschaft und seine stärkste Militärmacht neben Frankreich, samt Atomwaffen. Un das in Zeiten des Terrors. Neben Frankreich säße zudem kein weiteres EU-Land mehr im UN-Sicherheitsrat.

    mke/afp/dpa

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Gibbs New Ambassador-Designate To Geneva

New Ambassador-Designate To Geneva, Bentley Gibbs. (B.Hinds/BGIS)New Ambassador-Designate To Geneva, Bentley Gibbs. (B.Hinds/BGIS)

Retired Permanent Secretary, Bentley Gibbs, has been appointed Permanent Representative to the United Nations Office and other international organizations in Geneva.

According to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, the Ambassador-designate is expected to assume his duties later this month, and will replace Dr. Marion Williams who served from 2010 to 2015.

Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator Maxine McClean, has expressed confidence that the work which will be undertaken by the new envoy will be instrumental in advancing Barbados’ interests in Geneva and in the wider international community.

Mr. Gibbs has had a long and distinguished career in the public service, most notably as Permanent Secretary (Foreign Trade) in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade. He has played a central role in CARICOM, ACP/EU and World Trade Organization matters.

kim.ramsay-moore@barbados.gov.bb

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Brexit, un dibattito che va contro l'evidenza

Liuc genericoUniversità Cattaneo – Liuc

«Brexit or not brexit, that is a question». Giovedì prossimo sapremo come gli inglesi risolveranno questo dubbio amletico nel segreto dell’urna e soprattutto quanto avranno influito i fiumi di parole spesi prima del referendum sulle conseguenze di una uscita della Gran Bretagna dall’Unione Europea. Lo speciale di sei pagine dal titolo “Capire Brexit” pubblicato da “Il Sole 24ore” apre con una dichiarazione del premier David Cameron che bolla la Brexit come «Una via senza ritorno, capace solo di dividere invece di riunire, una via verso la recessione e l’impoverimento generale… Vi dico: non rischiate». Nel frattempo c’è stato anche l’omicidio della deputata laburista Jo Cox che secondo i sondaggisti – è striste dirlo ma è la realtà – avrebbe frenato la corsa dei brexiters, ovvero i favorevoli all’uscita, tra cui ci sono Michael Gove, ex grande amico di Cameron e ministro della Giustizia, e l’ex sindaco di Londra, Boris Johnson. (foto, da sinistra: i professori Gaetano Vitellino e Rodolfo Helg)

Un esito finale di difficile lettura e alla cui comprensione ha voluto dare un contributo anche l’Università Liuc di Castellanza proponendo ai giornalisti un incontro con due professori di ruolo: Rodolfo Helg, ordinario di economia politica e direttore della scuola di economia e management, e Gaetano Vitellino, docente di diritto internazionale dell’Unione Europea. «Abbiamo voluto contribuire alla comprensione di questo fenomeno – ha detto all’inizio dell’incontro il rettore Federico Visconti – attraverso il confronto con due nostri professori di ruolo che si misurano quotidianamente con la materia, nonostante si parli di fenomeni complessi caratterizzati da tali e tante variabili che spesso gli stessi economisti faticano a dominare».

In questo caso ciò che si teme non è un voto riconducibile all‘identità britannica, motivazione più che legittima e nobile, quanto un voto di “pancia”, cioè basato su motivazioni irrazionali e dettato da sentimenti di paura e di chiusura. Non a caso l’autorevole “Financial Times” ha sottolineato che il dibattito in corso ha la caratteristica di andare contro ciò che evidente. «Tutta l’evidenza empirica – ha spiegato Helg – dimostra che quello che dice Cameron è vero: in caso di uscita della Ue la Gran Bretagna subirà serie conseguenze e ne uscirà notevolmente impoverita. C’è solo uno studio che dice il contrario e quantifica la perdita di reddito in un minimo del 2%, rispetto all’attuale, fino a un massimo del 10% nel peggiore dei casi».

I sostenitori della Brexit fanno leva anche su argomentazioni di tipo economico, per esempio la Gran Bretagna in tema di contributi alla Ue ha un saldo negativo di 8,5 miliardi di euro, cioè paga più di quanto riceve. Una visione limitante perché il vero e grande contributo della Gran Bretagna all’Unione Europea è di tipo politico. «La posizione inglese nella Ue è autenticamente liberale – ha sottolineato l’economista – ecco perché la Francia statalista non soffrirebbe particolarmente per questa uscita. Sarebbe invece una perdita secca perché avremmo un’Europa più rigida, più chiusa su se stessa e verrebbe meno la sua spinta reale e continua alla competitività che giova a tutti i paesi membri, Italia compresa».

Un altro elemento su cui si fa confusione quando si parla di Brexit è il rapporto che c’è tra uscita dalla Ue e uscita dall’euro. «I trattati – ha spiegato Vitellino – prevedono e disciplinano il diritto di recesso dall’Unione Europea, mentre l’uscita dall’euro non è contemplata. Quindi se dovesse vincere il leave (la fazione favorevole all’uscita, ndr) non è che si cancella tutto, ma si mantiene una qualche forma di cooperazione che è necessaria».

Sono i dati a sostenere questa necessità per gli inglesi. Dal 1973, data in cui il Regno Unito è diventato membro della Comunità europea, a oggi, l’export inglese verso l’Unione è cresciuto del 55% . Quindi l’Europa è per la Gran Bretagna uno dei mercati di riferimento, soprattutto per i settori assicurativo e bancario che non possono essere messi fuori da questo regime da un momento all’altro. «In caso di uscita – ha concluso il docente – agli inglesi non rimangono che due strade: o entrare nello spazio economico europeo, oppure aderire all’Efta, l’ European Free Trade Association, un regime speciale, come per la Svizzera. Si tratta dell’Associazione europea di libero scambio che nasce in contemporanea con il Mercato comune europeo e viene promossa proprio dal Regno Unito che non voleva partecipare all’idea comunitaria lanciata da Francia e Germania sia per ragioni economiche, per aver le mani libere nei rapporti commerciali con il Commonwealth, sia per ragioni politiche, perché con il Mercato comune si affermava un’Unione sempre più stretta. Quella stessa Unione da cui oggi si vuole uscire».

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