Newly released market study: Germany Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

Newly released market study: Germany Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016 2016-08-23 15:20:20

Germany’s petrochemicals industry has witnessed a decline in the value of sales, but rising output volumes and continued low naphtha costs have helped producers defend margins. The outlook is modestly positive with sales likely to be increasingly oriented towards the domestic market, although there are ongoing concerns over the potential threat of competition from low-cost producers the US and the Middle East. Germany will need to maintain its level of value added with its advantage in technological innovation in order to maintain competitiveness.

In Q116, German chemical output, excluding pharma, rose 1.9% q-o-q but only 0.2% y-o-y, according to the Verband der Chemischen Industrie (VCI, Chemical Industry Association). However, with capacity utilisation at 83.6%, the sector was performing well. Chemical prices declined 1.4% y-o-y and 1.3% q-o-q due to falling feedstock costs. Demand also decreased with domestic sales down 1.2% q-o-q and 4.1% q-o-q and external sales down -0.7% q-o-q and 3.1% y-o-y.

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There is growing confidence of a strong year among plastic packaging manufacturers as consumer demand strengthens, while the construction sector is also set for rising growth rates. The weak point is the automotive industry, which looks set to be hit by the Volkswagen emissions scandal. This will put downward pressure on demand from the automotive parts producers and undermines the drive to diversify and add value to petrochemical production.

For the year 2016, BMI has downgraded its forecast for chemical output growth from 1.5% to 1.0%. However, as producer prices are anticipated to fall by 2.0%, chemical industry sales are projected to drop by 1.0% to EUR187bn. On the upside, the naphtha-ethylene spread was sustained at an average of around EUR555-557 in H116, an improvement on Q415. Derivative prices are also showing signs of recovery, indicating that German petrochemicals producers will remain profitable even as the value of sales declines.

As a result of falling competitiveness, small-scale polymers capacity is being shut down as German petrochemicals producers seek to cut costs and improve competitiveness. However, some value-added polymers output is gaining strength. Ineos Group and Solvay SA’s joint venture Inovyn has announced that it is permanently closing its 150,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) polyvinyl chloride production facility in Schkopau. Meanwhile, investment is being directed into polymers used in the automotive industry, with BASF leading the way under its EUR6bn programme over 2016-2020.

Germany scores 81.8 points, unchanged since the previous quarter as a result of improved country risk. Poor growth over the last few years has limited the market size and, while positive, we forecast muted growth. Germany retains its unassailable lead in BMI’s European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index, a clear 8.3 points ahead of the Netherlands.

The Germany Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research’s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI’s Germany Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

Benchmark BMI’s independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German petrochemicals market.

Target business opportunities and risks in the German petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.

Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI�s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI’s country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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