New market study, "United Kingdom Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016", has been published

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: “United Kingdom Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016”

New market study, "United Kingdom Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016", has been published 2016-07-14 18:07:01

The British chemicals industry as a whole is in transition to higher-value, lower-volume production, having closed many basic chemicals and polymers capacities in recent years. This should put the industry in good stead for profitability, although existing petrochemicals facilities will continue to feel the challenge of feedstock prices in competing with US and Middle Eastern rivals. The main downside risk comes from the lack of access to competitively priced feedstock in a global market facing over-supply .

The British petrochemicals industry experienced a downturn in Q116 with production indices suggesting a contraction of 1.3% y-o-y. Rubber and plastic output fell 0.7% while overall chemicals output fell 3.7%. This came in the context of a 1.3% contraction in manufacturing compared with Q115. The latest survey of business confidence for members of the Chemical Industries Association (CIA) shows that more than 88% of businesses expect sales volumes to remain or exceed 2015 levels when there was a record 5% growth, a decline of 2pp over the previous quarter. This would suggest that the industry expects a turn-around in fortunes in the rest of the year with exports leading growth; 95% expect to maintain or grow exports.

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The competitiveness of British petrochemicals production has been undermined by the lack of locally available and competitively priced feedstock as well as the strength of the pound against the euro. As such, British producers are in a weaker position to compete with foreign output.

Modest vehicle production growth of 2.4%, following 4% growth in 2015, will lead to slower growth in demand for engineering polymers from the automotive supply industry. Meanwhile, we maintain our forecasts for construction industry value real growth in the UK at 3.5% for 2016, which should help support consumption of construction-related petrochemicals products, particularly in the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) segment.

Over the next five years, ethylene capacity should hold at 2.52mn tpa with polymer capacities including 820,000tpa of polyethylene (PE), 495,000tpa polypropylene, 255,000tpa polyvinyl chloride and 157,000tpa of polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Risks are to the downside and we caution that some capacity will remain at risk of closure. Some segments, notably PET, are highly competitive; while other segments, notably PE, will struggle amid the onslaught of new capacity in North America and the Middle East.

The UK scores 73.0 out of 100 in BMI’s Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Rewards Index, down 0.1 points as a result of a modest weakening of its market risk. The downward revision comes due to concerns over the competitiveness of British petrochemicals production, particularly the cost of production, and the downturn in growth in Q116. On the upside, a long-term gas supply agreement for ExxonMobil’s Fife cracker will ease the growing burdens. The UK remains in third place this quarter, behind the Netherlands and ahead of Belgium.

The United Kingdom Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research’s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI’s United Kingdom Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the British petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

Benchmark BMI’s independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the British petrochemicals market.

Target business opportunities and risks in the British petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom.

Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI�s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

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